October Surprise' could affect election

JOHN HAVELOCK COMMENT(09/01/08 22:23:11)
Anchorage Daily News

"October Surprise" is a term used to describe a potential, external event that can control the outcome of a pending American election. We have had (so far) a mini October Surprise with the Georgia affair.

Another may be coming up. The surprise scenario presumes the deliberate creation of a national security crisis by a small group of persons or even one person. Control over the American election may be purely incidental to the event or the surprise may be an effort deliberately focused on American politics. Either way, it is an "October Surprise" by consequence.

To take an obvious example, a terrorist group might schedule or postpone an attack depending on the group's assessment of its effect on a U.S. election.

America is particularly vulnerable to the surprise scenario this year because, according to well-publicized polls, the uncommitted electorate currently perceives Sen. McCain as substantially more capable of dealing with a military emergency than Sen. Obama, while believing Sen. Obama to be far more capable of dealing with the country's domestic problems. Thus anyone, in or out of the country, in a position to precipitate an emergency with military overtones, has the capability of influencing the outcome of the U.S. election.

Though the American press painted the affair largely as a Russian invasion of Georgia, the Georgia crisis was precipitated by President Saakashvili's commitment of military force to suppress independence forces in the longtime breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, both of which contain majority populations of Russians. Pictures of dead South Ossetians killed by Georgian army shelling were rarely found in American newspapers, which characterized the Russian army reaction as an unprovoked invasion. The facts were more ambiguous and do bear some comparison with the Kosovo situation.

However, the merits of the dispute between Georgia and Russia are not the nub of a surprise set-up. The key question is: did American intelligence (we equip the Georgian army after all), know that President Saakashvili was planning this risky venture and, if so, why did the White House not stop him? A secondary surprise scenario would implicate President Saakashvili alone. When he planned his foray, did he by any chance have the American election on his mind? He is reported by the New York Times to have talked to Sen. McCain, "as often as twice a day." Fair question for Senator McCain: "What did you know and when did you know it?"

Whether the Georgian affair will tweak the candidates' standings, is unknown. It may be turning out to be a tempest in a teapot or it may become a step in a Cold War revival, indirectly supporting a McCain candidacy.

Another October Surprise, still only potential, that has engaged the attention of seasoned observers, is the possibility that Iran's uranium enrichment facilities will be bombed by Israel. Iran is well along in construction of numerous centrifuges at diverse locations that together can produce the fissionable material used in a nuclear warhead. Though this fuel can be used in the peaceful production of electrical energy, most observers believe that the processing effort is involved with Iranian strategic military intentions.

The situation and the analysis of intentions can best be described in terms of factions struggling for policy control in the three primary governments involved: the United States, Israel and Iran. The details of this policy issue are best left for another column, but it is worth examining the fallout if Israel delivers on its threat.

When Israel bombs Iran, Iran will close the Straits of Hormuz and Americans will be at war with Iran as we also bomb and perhaps land a force in Iran to keep the straits open for the passage of oil tankers to the world from our Gulf allies and Iraq. This will be no tempest in a teapot.

The White House does have the power, if it cares enough, to rein in the Israelis on a proposed bombing of Iran. Could the American election possibly be a consideration in the thinking of influential factions in either Israel or the United States? Let us hope not.